Details from the Coinbase vs SEC court case:

The SEC cannot present clear arguments, while Coinbase's lawyers provide strong evidence.
The SEC argues that Bitcoin, the only asset traded on Coinbase, is not a security.
The judge remarked, "I can already see a future where simple collectibles are regulated by the SEC."
The SEC's theory that they could have authority over anything with market value is seen by some as absurd.

The initial court proceedings seem to be favoring Coinbase, but the legal battle is ongoing. Drawing from the SEC vs Ripple case, Coinbase has a chance based on past legal experiences.