October 24 turned out to be a threshold for the crypto community. As Bitcoin soared up to $30,000, the vagueness transformed into ever-prevailing optimism, tinged with the greed and promising expectations. Among ones, an outlook has been standing out, stating the inevitability of Bitcoin scoring $40,000 by the end of the year.

While the prediction turned into reality, the debates about its credibility came to a logical conclusion, sharing the spotlight for two crucial fundamentals: the actual reasons behind Bitcoin surge, and the future state-of-things of the coin.

In this article, we’ll dive into two pivots and find out how the asset managed to make a year-high comeback.

Let’s stick into high gear!

Context:

On December 4, Bitcoin updated its year record by scoring a staggering $41,000. 24 hours later, the community’s euphoria took BTC to $44,000, with periodical RSI over 80. The bold surge concluded Bitcoin yearly growth of 150%, though it remains far from its historical high of $69,000, achieved in November of 2021.

On the face, it seems that Bitcoin skyrocketed as a matter of both technical and external factors. But is this presumption credible in the core?

ETF Launch and CZ’s Departure Implicated?

While technicalities showcase the upcoming halving of Bitcoin, verifying the Bitcoin price rally, fundamentals appear to be way more turbulent, making BTC surge somehow puzzling.

Bitcoin managed to thrive through the piles of negative developments, some of which are said to be critical. Since scoring its historic high of $69,000, the crypto has been hit with a never-ending influx of collapsed projects, regulatory scrutinies, and criminal trials. Among the array, two pivotal updates have been standing out, both being connected to the largest crypto exchanges over the globe (formerly and currently).

Specifically, a bold end was recently put to Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX – once one of the largest crypto exchanges in the world. Its collapse due to the fraudulent activity has significantly undermined the credibility of crypto, plummeting decentralized assets to the lowest rates and intensifying the legal focus towards virtual currencies.

While Sam Bankman-Fried ultimately faced his sentence, counting up to 100 years in prison, another remarkable crypto founder is just up to it. Less than a month after the FTX trial had come to its logical conclusion, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao pleaded guilty to criminal charges, stepping down as the CEO of Binance within a $4.3B settlement with the U.S. Authorities.

Many in the industry see the two cases concluding as a line being drawn under the issues that plagued the cryptomarket. Nevertheless, a vast majority of community kept believing that Binance management switch would cease crypto’s nascent bull era, or even eliminate it.

By contrast, the landscape was reversed with the positive movements towards accepting Bitcoin Exchange-Trade Fund (ETF). After months of obscurity, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seems to set the course for approving either a Bitcoin-focused exchange-trade fund or spot ETF.

A spot Bitcoin ETF will allow traditional investors to have exposure to the digital asset without actually owning it, spurring a vaster adoption and recognition of it. While the crypto market stands out due to its volatility, it remained a “no-go zone” for ones outside of the Web3 community.

From another perspective, the recent year seemed to be the calm before the storm, with no significant rallies in charge of the markets. Better time to introduce crypto to the traditional investors can’t be imagined.

The enthusiasm was greatly heated as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the U.S. Central Bank’s policy was “well into restrictive territory”. Many interpreted the statement to be the showcase of the increasing interest towards crypto from the point of its regulation and adoption.

Notably, the thrill about Bitcoin does not come solely from the ETF anticipation. In fact, it is massively spurred by the upcoming 4th halving of the asset, set for May 2024. While halving stands for cutting the miner’s reward for blocks’ hash unfold, it will keep a cap on the total supply of Bitcoin, with only 21 million coins to flow across the web. Consequently, the halving will positively affect the BTC price, as per technical characteristics and previous tendencies.

“A number of market participants are expecting a bull run some time after the halving, but given the ETF news, we could very well have a run before that leaving most investors on the sidelines. That could cause a massive upward run in the price”

– Vijay Ayyar, vice president of international markets at cryptocurrency exchange CoinDCX, said in an interview to CNBC.

But can this potential upward be predicted technically?

Technical Prediction for Bitcoin

While the enthusiasm on Bitcoin rally is entering the second stage of massive short-period sell, the RSI showcases 34 range. It seems that the future predictions for Bitcoin’s bullish trend does not find a seat in investors’ strategy, yet this presumption may be short-sighted.

Indeed, Bitcoin merely plummeted to $43,000 contrary to SMA 200 that is clearly indicating that the bullish trend is not broken. Amidst the increased interest, the chances are high for BTC to reach $50,000 by the end of the year.

Similar prediction is voiced by reputable investor Ali. In his post on X, $47,300 push-forward sounds as a realistic prediction until current support level is broken. In the worst case scenario, Bitcoin will turn to the $38,000 mark – another critical area to watch.

The different point of view is cited by Michaёl van de Poppe. A credible analyst believes that corrections are about to take place, stating that ETF launch will not cause markets to move “in a ballistic manner with $200K in one-go”.

Still, the investor does not exclude the $50,000 Bitcoin scenario, explaining that such a short-term top may arrive amidst ETF approval.

Ultimately, regardless of the controversy of predictions, Bitcoin will likely remain in its bullish sentiment with the corrections, characterised by the slight price dips.

Still, the crypto market, just as its external dimension, remains highly volatile. Hence, always do your own research before investing and stay constantly turned on the charts.