@lukeocodes 🕹👨‍💻When Elon Musk announced his intention to purchase Twitter in April 2022, he did so with grand promises. He pledged to tackle the platform's pervasive bot problem, ensure free speech, and improve overall user experience. However, as the dust settles, it's clear that these promises remain largely unfulfilled. Instead, the transformation of Twitter into "X" has introduced new issues, exacerbated old ones, and left users questioning the platform's future.
The Bot Problem: Worse Than Ever
One of Musk's primary reasons for acquiring Twitter was his desire to eliminate spam bots, which he claimed plagued the platform. In 2022, Musk estimated that bots constituted 20% or more of Twitter accounts, significantly higher than Twitter's own estimates of less than 5%. This discrepancy became a central point of contention during the acquisition process, with Musk demanding more transparency from Twitter's then-management.
Despite these claims, recent studies suggest that the bot problem has not improved under Musk's leadership. Data from CHEQ, a cybersecurity firm, revealed that invalid traffic from bots on Twitter increased significantly in 2023. Organic traffic showed an invalid rate of 10.43%, nearly double the 5.13% from paid traffic. This increase indicates that not only has Musk failed to address the bot issue, but it has also worsened since his takeover.
Moreover, researchers have pointed out that accurately identifying bots remains a significant challenge due to the lack of a universally accepted definition. Tools like Botometer, which attempt to classify accounts based on bot-like behavior, have shown inconsistent results. For instance, Musk's own account has oscillated between high and low bot-like scores depending on the day. This inconsistency underscores the difficulty in differentiating between human and bot accounts, especially when many bots can mimic human interactions convincingly.
Further complicating the issue, researchers from University College London have identified millions of bots on Twitter, most of which are malicious. These bots can execute simple yet harmful activities, such as spamming and spreading misinformation. Despite the evidence, Twitter has shown limited proactive measures in addressing these findings, likely due to the potential loss of user count that comes with bot removal.
The bot problem on Twitter has not only persisted but also appears to have intensified under Musk's ownership. The complexities in accurately identifying and mitigating bots, combined with Twitter's apparent lack of urgency in addressing the issue, suggest that the platform's bot problem is far from being resolved​ (CPO Magazine)​ (Tech Monitor).
Free Speech or Free for All?
Musk's championing of "free speech" has been another cornerstone of his vision for Twitter. However, his interpretation of free speech has led to the platform becoming a haven for hate speech and dangerous misinformation. By rolling back moderation policies and restoring previously banned accounts, Musk has allowed users to propagate harmful content under the guise of free expression.
When Musk took over Twitter, one of his first moves was to overhaul the content moderation policies. This included reinstating previously banned accounts and scaling back on efforts to curb misinformation and hate speech. Musk's assertion that "Twitter cannot become a free-for-all hellscape" has not been reflected in the platform's reality​ (Digital Planet)​ (Business Insider). The result has been a significant uptick in harmful content, much of which targets marginalized communities.
The data tells a troubling story. Researchers found that the daily average usage of hate keywords nearly doubled after Musk's acquisition of Twitter​ (Phys News). This rise in hate speech is particularly concerning given the platform's influence on public discourse. Anti-Semitic, ethnic hate speech, and anti-LGBTQ+ mentions have all seen marked increases. For example, anti-Semitic mentions rose by over 50% in the weeks following Musk's takeover​ (Digital Planet).
Moreover, Musk's approach to free speech has emboldened extremists and conspiracy theorists. By allowing such content to flourish, he has effectively created an environment where misinformation spreads unchecked. This has had real-world consequences, including unrest and violence in places like the UK, where Musk's own posts have been linked to inflammatory incidents​ (Yahoo Finance).
Human rights organizations and digital rights advocates have expressed deep concerns over these changes. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have both warned that Musk's policies could lead to a proliferation of hate speech and misinformation, making the platform unsafe for many users​ (Business Insider). The loosening of content moderation not only affects Twitter but sets a precedent for other social media platforms, potentially lowering the bar for acceptable speech across the internet.
Musk's version of "free speech" has turned Twitter into a battleground of conflicting narratives, where harmful and false information can spread with little oversight. This shift has significant implications for the platform's role in shaping public opinion and political discourse, raising questions about the responsibilities of social media giants in moderating content. As we move forward, the challenge will be finding a balance between protecting free speech and ensuring the platform does not become a breeding ground for hate and misinformation.
Fact-Checking and API Access: A Broken Promise
Under previous management, Twitter supported fact-checking initiatives and offered free API access to developers, enabling the creation of tools to combat misinformation and enhance user experience. This support allowed platforms like Polititweet to record and analyse Twitter history, providing a critical resource for researchers and fact-checkers. However, since Elon Musk's acquisition, these supportive measures have been dismantled, and the consequences have been significant.
One of the most contentious changes under Musk's leadership has been the commercialisation of Twitter's API. Previously, researchers and developers could access the API for free, which was crucial for monitoring and counteracting misinformation. This access enabled projects that tracked harassment, analysed disinformation networks, and supported various public interest initiatives. The decision to monetise API access, with costs reaching up to $42,000 per month, has effectively locked out many academic and non-profit entities that relied on this data​ (PolitiFact)​ (Fast Company).
For instance, Polititweet, a platform that tracked and archived political tweets, was forced to cease operations in April 2023 when they were denied API access. This removal has hindered the ability of researchers to track the spread of misinformation and hold public figures accountable for their statements​ (Poynter).
The loss of free API access has broader implications for media and public trust. Twitter has historically been a valuable source for journalists and researchers, providing real-time data and insights. However, the platform's shift towards a pay-to-play model has degraded its reliability. Verified information is harder to find, while misinformation is given an undue platform due to the prioritisation of content from paying users.
This shift has allowed individuals and entities to amplify false information with minimal oversight. For example, during the recent riots in the UK, Nigel Farage falsely claimed on live TV that a migrant was responsible for the murder of three young children, when in reality, the perpetrator was a British man born in Wales. Such incidents underscore the dangers of unchecked misinformation and the role Twitter now plays in spreading it​ (PolitiFact)​ (Poynter).
Another significant change has been the transformation of the blue check mark system. Previously, the blue check mark was a symbol of verified identity and credibility. Under Musk's management, it became a subscription service, allowing anyone willing to pay $8 a month to obtain a blue check mark. This change has led to rampant impersonation and a surge in misinformation. Accounts spreading false information can now appear legitimate, further eroding public trust​ (PolitiFact).
Elon Musk's tenure has fundamentally altered Twitter's role in information dissemination. The removal of free API access and the commodification of verification have stifled innovation, hindered research, and allowed misinformation to flourish. As a result, Twitter is no longer a reliable source for accurate information, posing significant challenges for media outlets and researchers alike. The platform's future as a credible information source remains in jeopardy, highlighting the need for robust oversight and regulation in the digital information space.
The End is Nigh
There is substantial evidence indicating that Twitter's real-user numbers are in decline while bot activity is on the rise under Elon Musk's leadership.
Twitter is projected to lose over 32 million users by the end of 2024. This decline is attributed to technical issues, offensive content, and a general frustration with the platform's changes under Musk's ownership. Specifically, Twitter's user base is expected to decrease by 5.1% in 2024, following a 3.9% drop in 2023​​ (IT World Canada)​ (Oberlo). Analysts point out that this exodus is driven by Musk's erratic behavior, increased hate speech, and a deteriorating user experience​​ (Absolutely Maybe).
While the real-user numbers decline, bot activity has shown signs of increasing. Studies have highlighted that Musk's efforts to combat bots have not only fallen short but, in some cases, may have worsened the situation. Bots continue to play a significant role on the platform, particularly in spreading misinformation​​ (Business of Apps).
Elon Musk has hinted at transforming Twitter into a broader application platform, potentially resembling China's WeChat, integrating services like messaging, payments, and more. His goal of making "X" a super-app reflects a significant shift from Twitter's original purpose​​. Additionally, Musk's plans include a massive increase in users and revenue, targeting $26.4 billion in annual revenue by 2028 and reaching 931 million users​​ (The San Francisco Standard).
Hints of more drastic changes or even the closure of Twitter as we know it have surfaced. Musk's decisions, including rebranding Twitter to "X" and relocating the company's headquarters from California to Texas due to regulatory and political disagreements, suggest a potential overhaul or shutdown of the current platform​​ (The San Francisco Standard).
These trends are alarming, especially considering Twitter's role as a major platform for public discourse. The rise in bots and decline in genuine user engagement could further erode trust in the platform, making it a less reliable source for information and news. Media outlets and the public may need to reconsider how much they rely on Twitter for accurate and timely information, as the platform's changes under Musk continue to undermine its credibility and functionality.
Furthermore, Musk's contentious relationship with advertisers has significantly affected Twitter's revenue. Since his takeover, monthly ad revenue has declined by at least 55% year-over-year, with a particularly steep drop of 71% in December 2023. In response to this exodus, Musk has accused the Global Alliance for Responsible Media (GARM) of orchestrating mass boycotts and has even sued several major advertisers, alleging they illegally conspired to harm his company. Despite efforts to win back advertisers by improving brand safety controls, the platform's reputation and revenue continue to suffer from these disputes (Reuters) (The Wrap).
The ongoing war with advertisers highlights Musk's struggle to maintain a viable business model amid widespread criticism and declining user trust. The legal battles and drastic measures reflect his desperate attempts to salvage the platform, but they also underscore the broader challenges Twitter faces under his leadership ((AccessWDUN)[https://accesswdun.com/article/2024/8/1467227/elon-musk-x-sues-advertisers]).
Conclusion
Twitter's transformation under Elon Musk has led to a steep decline in real-user numbers and a significant rise in bot activity. With projections indicating a loss of over 32 million users by the end of 2024 and ad revenue plummeting by as much as 78% in December 2023, the platform's viability as a business is under serious threat. If the current rate of decline continues, Twitter may become unsustainable within the next few years.
As users and advertisers flee the platform, several alternatives have emerged. Some of the most prominent include:
- Mastodon: A decentralized social network that allows users to create their own communities.
- Bluesky: A project initiated by Twitter's former CEO Jack Dorsey, aiming to develop a decentralized social media protocol.
- Threads: Launched by Meta (Facebook's parent company), Threads aims to integrate with Instagram to offer a new social networking experience.
- Discord: While primarily a chat application, Discord offers robust community features that many former Twitter users find appealing.
For those looking to migrate their data from Twitter, tools and platforms vary in their support. Some services like Mastodon offer partial migration tools to help users import their tweets and followers. However, comprehensive migration solutions are limited, and users often need to manually save and transfer their data.
In summary, Twitter's decline under Musk's leadership, characterized by user loss and increasing bot prevalence, indicates a potentially bleak future for the platform. As users seek alternatives, new and existing social networks are stepping up to fill the void, albeit with varying degrees of data migration support.
Time to leave?
Me:
According to this: https://dev.to/termsCan i swear about someone in my article? I'd like to end it with a message about Elon Musk and his interference with UK politics.
ChatGPT:
According to the terms of use for dev.to, using offensive is prohibited. The terms state:"Please refrain from name-calling and ad hominem attacks when discussing other users, people, or companies. Avoid using offensive or inappropriate language. If you’re unsure whether a word is offensive, it probably is. If you’re confident it isn’t, someone else might disagree."
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As usual with my posts. I use AI as a writing aide because "Luke no write good". I use it as a copywriter, to turn my ramblings and crappy source notes into something you can read.
