Are we being lied to by OpenAI (and others) about how quickly AI is improving?

Is AI overhyped? Or is this another “NFT moment” where the over-hype will be followed by a big bust?

BTW, full disclosure here. I was never a believer in the NFT hype cycle. But I am instinctively more of a believer in the AI hype.

I read about the latest in AI every single day.

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I keep flip-flopping between thinking that we’re either quickly approaching AGI (artificial general intelligence) OR we are reaching a plateau in terms of LLM’s capabilities.

There are good arguments to be made on both sides.

In this article, I want to explore the possibility that AI is being over-hyped.

The Current State of AI

AI has made significant strides in recent years, with models like GPT-4o showcasing impressive capabilities. From generating human-like text to assisting in complex tasks, the potential applications are vast. However, this rapid advancement has also led to inflated expectations and concerns about the true capabilities and future trajectory of AI.

The Over-Hype Phenomenon

One of the primary drivers of the AI hype is the marketing and promotional efforts by companies like OpenAI. They emphasize the breakthroughs and possibilities, sometimes overshadowing the limitations and challenges that still exist. This creates a perception that AI is evolving faster than it actually is, leading to unrealistic expectations.

The NFT Parallel

The NFT (Non-Fungible Token) market experienced a similar hype cycle. Initially, there was enormous enthusiasm and investment, but the market soon faced criticism and skepticism, leading to a significant downturn. The AI industry, particularly in the context of LLMs (Large Language Models) like GPT-4o, might be experiencing a similar trajectory.

Anecdotal Evidence of Decline

My brother and business partner, Addison Best, and I have been noticing the capabilities of GPT-4o declining. Yes, this is anecdotal, but the decline is pretty obvious.

For example, if I ask GPT-4o to put my affiliate links in certain spots of an article, it often struggles to maintain coherence and context. This was not as evident in earlier iterations of the model. Such observations raise questions about whether we are truly seeing progress or merely hitting a plateau.

The Arguments for Rapid Progress

On the other hand, there are undeniable signs of rapid progress in AI. New models are being developed with improved architecture and training techniques. The integration of AI in various industries, from healthcare to finance, demonstrates its growing impact and potential.

The Plateau Perspective

Conversely, the plateau argument suggests that while we are making incremental improvements, the fundamental challenges of AI, such as understanding context, generating truly creative content, and achieving general intelligence, remain largely unsolved. The hype may be masking these limitations, leading to disillusionment when expectations are not met.

Conclusion

Are we being lied to about the rapid advancements in AI? Perhaps not intentionally, but the hype certainly skews perception. It's crucial to balance enthusiasm with a realistic understanding of AI's current capabilities and limitations. While there is significant progress, we must remain cautious about over-hyping and creating unrealistic expectations.

In conclusion, the AI journey is far from over. Whether we are on the brink of AGI or facing a plateau, the conversation about AI's potential and limitations must continue with a balanced and informed perspective.

That's all for today.

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