How to distinguish over-hyped technologies (which gonna die) from innovative technologies which gonna stay?

Yes, I know:

• it is better to choose stabile technologies over trends
• it is better to choose tools you know over trends
• it is better to use tool appropriate for the task

But if the technology is popular (trendy) it means, there is big a community, which means easier to get support, a bigger number of community-driven libraries, a bigger number of vacancies, a bigger number of candidates to hire.

For example :

• Do you remember CoffeeScript or facebook flow? On the other side, TypeScript is here to stay
• Do you remember Adobe Flash (Flex)? Everybody use JS + HTML 5 now
• Web components first was presented in 2011, yet doesn’t seem to be a mainstream technology. React was presented in 2015 and now it is everywhere (too much of it)