This is a Plain English Papers summary of a research paper called AI Models Can Now Self-Train to Make Better Future Predictions, Study Shows. If you like these kinds of analysis, you should join AImodels.fyi or follow us on Twitter.

Overview

• New method improves AI forecasting without human training data
• Uses AI self-play to generate reasoning paths and predictions
• Ranks predictions based on actual outcomes
• Improves accuracy by 7-10% in smaller models
• Matches performance of larger models like GPT-4

Plain English Explanation

Language models are getting better at predicting future events, but they usually need humans to teach them how to reason. This research shows a clever way around that limitation.

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