Avalanche (AVAX) traded at $25.95, reflecting a 1% drop in the past 24 hours, with trading volumes declining over 40% according to CoinMarketCap. Recent geopolitical tensions have heightened volatility, but medium-term momentum shows signs of a shift as bulls attempt to regain control. AVAX has formed a descending triangle pattern on the four-hour chart, typically a bearish signal. However, a breakout above this pattern suggests a potential bullish reversal, with resistance at $26.50, the 100% Fibonacci level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 indicates weak buying activity, but recent movements above the signal line hint at possible bullish momentum. If AVAX surpasses the $26 resistance, the next target could be the 2.618 Fibonacci level at $30. However, continued bullish control depends on the MACD turning positive. Increased whale interest has been noted, with large transactions rising from 4.9 million to 8.29 million.

Despite the uptick in whale activity, overall market sentiment remains negative, with Avalanche's Total Value Locked (TVL) recently exceeding $1 billion and a 20% increase in dApp volumes. However, traders show lack of confidence, as AVAX’s crowd sentiment has dropped to a monthly low, reflecting concerns about sustained price action.